Coverage

Exactly what we index — and what we don't

Coverage is partial by design and shown honestly. These figures are read live from the indexing engine and stamped with their last refresh — the same source every other page on this site quotes. We never fabricate an analysis for a market we haven't fully indexed.

Market index refreshed 2 min ago · 2026-07-17 10:27 UTC

631
Events indexed
active Polymarket events
2,000
Markets indexed
most-active subset, capped
2,000
With full rules text
100% of markets
2,000
Canonical identity
100% resolved
249
Execution history
12% with book history
96
Mapped resolution source
5% source-verified
80
Excluded (stale)
not scored on old data

Executable order-book coverage

Live coverage of the canonical order book Market Truth prices against, shown as three explicit tiers — each with its own count, denominator and definition. This is the executable data plane, not the legacy prediction book-history tape.

Refreshed just now · 2026-07-17 10:31 UTC

2,000
Tracked markets
Markets the canonical order-book data plane currently indexes.
2,000
Book-eligible markets
100% of 2,000 tracked · Markets that should currently have an upstream executable order book based on market state.
2,000
Complete canonical book
100% of 2,000 tracked · Markets for which the canonical data plane holds a complete current order book — a live, non-fallback, fresh book for every outcome. Per-market executable bid, ask and depth are shown in each report; a complete book may still be one-sided.

Terminally unavailable: 0 · temporarily unavailable: 0. Not every tracked market has an executable book.

Independent intelligence platform. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket.

How to read this. Every active market gets full rules text and a canonical identity, so Resolution Watch and Event Map run broadly. Executable pricing (Executable Basket, Market Truth's book) needs a live order book, which we hold for the most liquid subset. Mapped resolution sources are the slowest-growing dimension and we're expanding them. A market outside a dimension returns "insufficient evidence" for that module — never a guessed answer.

A Polymarket event can contain several separate markets.

The index holds 2,000 active markets across 631 events (identity, refreshed 2026-07-17 10:10 UTC); 1,995 of them carry a current Resolution Watch assessment (refreshed 2026-07-17 09:41 UTC). Both tiers are selected by trading volume.

Largest indexed events

EventMarketsAssessed
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
 45 45 Search
Next French Presidential Election
next-french-presidential-election
 38 38 Search
Presidential Election Winner 2028
presidential-election-winner-2028
 37 37 Search
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
republican-presidential-nominee-2028
 35 35 Search
NFL Champion 2027
big-game-champion-2027
 32 32 Search
Iran leader end of 2026?
iran-leader-end-of-2026
 30 30 Search
MLB World Series Champion 2026
mlb-world-series-champion-2026
 30 30 Search
NBA: LeBron James Next Team
nba-lebron-james-next-team
 30 30 Search
NBA: 2027 Champion
nba-2027-champion
 30 30 Search
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027
 29 29 Search
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
ballon-dor-winner-2026
 25 25 Search
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban
 24 24 Search

Model calibration

The resolution-risk model is graded on 1,156 historically resolved markets. Current verdict: MODEL_BEATS_BASELINES — held-out Brier 0.119 vs 0.149 for a constant base-rate baseline. Recomputed 24h ago. Full method: Methodology → the model · results: Track record

Known limitations