我们索引什么、不索引什么，一清二楚
覆盖范围有意保持局部，并如实展示。以下数字实时读取自索引引擎，并标注最近一次刷新时间——与本站其他页面引用的是同一数据源。我们绝不为尚未完整索引的市场编造分析。
市场索引最近刷新：2 分钟前 · 2026-07-17 10:27 UTC
631
已索引事件
活跃的 Polymarket 事件
2,000
已索引市场
最活跃子集，设有上限
2,000
含完整规则文本
占市场的 100%
2,000
规范化市场身份
100% 已解析
249
执行历史
12% 具备订单簿历史
96
已映射结算来源
5% 来源已核验
80
已剔除（数据过期）
不用过期数据评分
Executable order-book coverage
Live coverage of the canonical order book Market Truth prices against, shown as three explicit tiers — each with its own count, denominator and definition. This is the executable data plane, not the legacy prediction book-history tape.
Refreshed 刚刚 · 2026-07-17 10:32 UTC
2,000
Tracked markets
Markets the canonical order-book data plane currently indexes.
2,000
Book-eligible markets
100% of 2,000 tracked · Markets that should currently have an upstream executable order book based on market state.
2,000
Complete canonical book
100% of 2,000 tracked · Markets for which the canonical data plane holds a complete current order book — a live, non-fallback, fresh book for every outcome. Per-market executable bid, ask and depth are shown in each report; a complete book may still be one-sided.
Terminally unavailable: 0 · temporarily unavailable: 0. Not every tracked market has an executable book.
Independent intelligence platform. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket.
如何解读。每个活跃市场都有完整规则文本和规范化市场身份，因此 Resolution Watch 与 Event Map 覆盖面很广。可执行定价（Executable Basket、Market Truth 的订单簿）需要实时订单簿，我们仅对流动性最高的子集持有。已映射结算来源是增长最慢的维度，我们正在持续扩充。不在某一维度覆盖范围内的市场，对应模块会返回“证据不足”——绝不会是猜出来的答案。
Is your market covered?
The index holds 2,000 active markets across 631 events (identity, refreshed 2026-07-17 10:10 UTC); 1,995 of them carry a current Resolution Watch assessment (refreshed 2026-07-17 09:41 UTC). Both tiers are selected by trading volume.
Largest indexed events
| Event | Markets | Assessed | |
|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 democratic-presidential-nominee-2028 |
45 | 45 | Search |
Next French Presidential Election next-french-presidential-election |
38 | 38 | Search |
Presidential Election Winner 2028 presidential-election-winner-2028 |
37 | 37 | Search |
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 republican-presidential-nominee-2028 |
35 | 35 | Search |
NFL Champion 2027 big-game-champion-2027 |
32 | 32 | Search |
Iran leader end of 2026? iran-leader-end-of-2026 |
30 | 30 | Search |
MLB World Series Champion 2026 mlb-world-series-champion-2026 |
30 | 30 | Search |
NBA: LeBron James Next Team nba-lebron-james-next-team |
30 | 30 | Search |
NBA: 2027 Champion nba-2027-champion |
30 | 30 | Search |
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027 |
29 | 29 | Search |
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 ballon-dor-winner-2026 |
25 | 25 | Search |
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban |
24 | 24 | Search |
模型校准
结算风险模型基于 1,156 个已结算的历史市场评分。当前判定：MODEL_BEATS_BASELINES——留出集 Brier 为 0.119，对比恒定基准率基线的 0.149。最近一次重算：24 小时前。 完整方法：方法论 → 模型 · 结果：实证记录
已知局限
- 覆盖范围以 Polymarket 为主；其他平台未被索引。
- 市场索引是最活跃市场的限量选集——并非 Polymarket 全部上架市场；索引之外的市场会返回“未追踪”，而不是一份分析。
- 结算来源映射尚不完整——缺失时，来源依赖类结论会受限，并如实标注。
- 订单簿覆盖偏向流动性好的市场；成交稀薄的市场可能因深度不足而无法给出滑点估计。
- 数据可能存在缓存；每个结果都带有自身的证据时间戳。